研究巴菲特

使沃伦-巴菲特成为世界上最著名的投资者的那些以前未曾解释过的技术

作者：玛丽-巴菲特

Buffettology

The Previously Unexplained Techniques That Have Made Warren Buffett The World's Most Famous Investor

By Mary Buffett

内容提要

《Buffettology》（1997年）以内部人士的视角介绍了沃伦-巴菲特的投资技巧，首次披露了某些策略。从学习何时购买股票到确定最有利可图的企业，《Buffettology》从世界上最著名的投资者身上提供了详细技巧和方法。

Synopsis

Buffettology (1997) gives an insider’s perspective on Warren Buffett’s investment techniques, revealing certain strategies for the very first time. From learning when to purchase a stock to pinpointing the most profitable businesses, Buffettology offers detailed tips and methods from the most famous investor in the world.

本书适用于谁？

* 向巴菲特学习的新手

* 任何类型的投资者和投机者

* 任何有兴趣希望做好财务管理的人

Who is it for?

* Budding Buffettologists

* Investors and speculators of any kind

* Anyone interested in getting their finances in order

关于作者

玛丽-巴菲特是一位畅销书作家、环保活动家、顾问和国际演讲家。她的书包括《沃伦-巴菲特之道》、《沃伦-巴菲特的管理秘诀》和《巴菲特学工作手册》。她的作品已被翻译成17种不同的语言，包括希伯来语、汉语、阿拉伯语和俄语。

About the author

Mary Buffett is a best-selling author, environmental activist, consultant, and international speaker. Her books include The Tao of Warren Buffett, Warren Buffett’s Management Secrets, and The Buffettology Workbook. Her work has been translated into 17 different languages, including Hebrew, Chinese, Arabic, and Russian.

1, What’s in it for me? Learn to invest like the master himself.

[ 本书讲了什么？学会像大师一样投资 ]

沃伦-巴菲特被称为 "奥马哈的神谕 "是有原因的。在挑选投资方面，他似乎拥有几乎超自然的力量。半个多世纪以来，他选择了许多美国最成功和最持久的公司，经常在别人不愿意的时候购买它们。

Warren Buffett is known as the “Oracle of Omaha” for good reason. When it comes to picking investments, he seems to possess almost supernatural powers. For over half a century, he has selected many of America’s most successful and durable companies, often purchasing them when nobody else would.

然而，正如你将在本书中了解到的，巴菲特的方法并没有什么超自然的地方。所有这一切都归结于艰苦的分析、对公司的熟悉和长期的观点。在这里，你会从这位老大师那里学到一些技巧--你会发现如何以 "商业方式 "进行投资，对公司收入和股价进行理解，并挑选那些你了解的产品的公司。也许--只是也许--你会发现你将是下一个大赢家。

However, as you’ll learn in these blinks, there’s nothing supernatural about Buffett’s method. All of it comes down to painstaking analysis, familiarity with the company, and a long-term perspective. Here you’ll learn some tips from the old master – you’ll find out how to invest in a “businesslike manner”, make sense of earnings and share prices, and pick companies whose products you understand. Maybe – just maybe – you’ll be the one who unearths the next big winner.

在本书，你将学会

    *选择股票时，公司收入是至关重要的；

    *如何在你的冰箱里找到最佳投资；

    *沃伦-巴菲特为什么不投资微软。

In these blinks, you’ll learn

* that earnings are critically important when choosing a stock;

* how the best investment might be found in your refrigerator; and

* why Warren Buffett didn’t invest in Microsoft.

2, You should invest in a businesslike manner.

[ 你应该以商业规则来进行投资 ]

沃伦-巴菲特的伟大导师是一个叫本杰明-格雷厄姆的人。格雷厄姆是一个在英国出生的美国人，因一本名为《证券分析》的书而闻名--这本书对几代投资者来说是一本神圣的书。

Warren Buffett’s great mentor was a man named Benjamin Graham. Graham was a British-born American famous for a book called Security Analysis – it’s something of a sacred tome for generations of investors.

格雷厄姆的中心思想之一是，最聪明的投资是像经商一样。这个想法塑造了年轻的巴菲特的哲学，成为他投资战略的一个重要组成部分。不过，像经商一样的确切含义是什么？

One of Graham’s central ideas was that investing is most intelligent when it is most businesslike. This idea shaped the young Warren Buffett’s philosophy, becoming an essential part of his investment strategy. What exactly does businesslike mean, though?

从本质上讲，它意味着把你要买的股票当作一个企业，而不是当作一张投机的彩票。由于购买一家公司的股票也就是拥有了该企业的一部分，这两者之间还是有些关联的。

Essentially, it means thinking of the stock you’re going to buy as a business, and not as a speculative lottery ticket. As buying a company’s stock is about owning a part of that business, this isn’t such a big leap to make.

如果你正在考虑购买一家企业，你会寻找什么？如果你是明智的，你会想要一个能给你带来高的、可预测的年度利润，并且风险最小的企业。

If you were thinking of buying a business, what would you look for? If you were wise, you’d want one that could give you high, predictable annual profits, with a minimal amount of risk.

想象一下，你要买下你当地的药店。首先，你会翻阅它的账目，看看该业务是否持续盈利，以及这种情况是否会改变。你会看看是否有一个大的竞争对手即将出现，或者它的产品是否仍有一段时间的需求。如果一切看起来还不错，你就会询问价格。

Imagine you were going to buy your local drugstore. First, you’d dig through its books to see if the business was consistently profitable, and whether or not that might change.You’d look to see if a big competitor was on the horizon, or whether its products would still be in demand for a while. If everything still looked good, you’d enquire about the price.

然后，你会将要价与该店的年收入进行比较，看看你能得到什么样的回报。假设该店的价格是100,000美元，其年收入平均为20,000美元。这将是你的资金每年20%的回报。接下来，你会四处寻找，看看20%的回报是否是你能找到的最好的回报。如果是，那么，也只有在那时，你才应该进行购买。你应该以与购买这家药店完全相同的谨慎方式考虑你的股票选择。

Then, you’d compare the asking price with the store’s annual earnings to see what kind of return you’d get. Let’s say that the store’s price was $100,000 and its annual earnings $20,000 on average. That would be a 20 percent yearly return on your money. Next, you’d shop around and see whether or not a 20 percent return was the best you could find. If it was, then, and only then, should you make a purchase. You should think about your stock picks in exactly thesame careful way as you’d approach buying this drugstore.

这样的投资也意味着要像一个好的商人一样，进行长期思考。与华尔街的许多人不同，沃伦-巴菲特更喜欢长期持有一只股票。许多投机者宁愿快速赚取35%的回报，而不是在几十年内每年复利20%的回报。但是，如果提前卖出股票，他们就会产生资本利得税，这将使他们的35%的回报率减少到25%。然后，他们不得不重新投资，资金要继续流动，这会引入风险，可能投资收益会变差。

Investing like this also means thinking long-term, like a good businessperson. Unlike many on Wall Street, Warren Buffett prefers to hold a stock for a long time. Many speculators would rather make, say, a quick 35 percent return, rather than an annual, compounding 20 percent over a few decades. But by selling their stock early, they’d incur capital gains tax, which would reduce their 35 percent return to just 25 percent. Then, they’d have to reinvest, risking poorer investments as they move their money around.

用沃伦-巴菲特的方式投资意味着长期的高额可预测回报。而且，大多数时候，沃伦-巴菲特的方式会更好。

Investing the Warren Buffett way means high, predictable returns over the long term. And, most of the time, the Warren Buffett way wins.

3, You should look for companies that are consumer monopolies.

[ 你应该寻找那些垄断消费者型公司 ]

在他的投资生涯中，沃伦-巴菲特已经发现了特殊的企业，并长期坚持下去。从可口可乐到Hershey’s公司再到美国银行，他已经多次淘到了金子。虽然许多人可能认为股票投资是一种赌博，但巴菲特的成功与运气关系不大。相反，他一直在挑选那些有一个共同点的公司。它们都是所谓的垄断消费者型公司。

Throughout his investing life, Warren Buffett has identified exceptional businesses and stuck with them over the long term. From Coca-Cola to Hershey’s to Bank of America, he’s struck gold many times. While many people might see stock investing as a kind of gambling, luck has very little to do with Buffett’s success. Instead, he has consistently picked companies that have one thing in common. They are what are known as consumer monopolies.

那么，究竟什么是垄断消费者？一个很好的例子是收费桥。如果你想过河，但不想游泳过河或用船，你就必须使用这座桥。收费者对过河有垄断权。除非附近有类似的桥，否则收费桥会吸引最多的生意。

What exactly is a consumer monopoly, then? A good illustration is a toll bridge. If you want to cross a river, and don’t want to swim across it or use a boat, you’ll have to use the bridge. Those collecting the toll have a monopoly over crossing the river. Unless there's a similar bridge nearby, the toll bridge will attract the most business.

为了判断一家公司是否是垄断消费者，巴菲特问了自己一个问题：他能和这家企业竞争吗？如果钱不是障碍，他能不能成立一个对手来抢夺其市场份额？例如，他能不能建立一个与《华尔街日报》或可口可乐竞争的对手？在这两种情况下，答案都是否定的。投资者喜欢他们的《华尔街日报》，而任何咖啡馆、餐馆或街角商店如果不想减少销售额，就绝对要备有可乐。

To tell whether or not a company is a consumer monopoly, Buffett asks himself a question: could he compete with the business? If money was no obstacle, could he set up a rival to take away its market share? For instance, could he set up a rival to the Wall Street Journal or Coca-Cola? In both cases, the answer is no. Investors lovetheir WSJ, while any cafe, restaurant, or corner store absolutely has to stock Coke if it doesn’t want to lose sales.

人们之所以对这两种产品情有独钟，是因为约翰-霍普金斯大学学生劳伦斯-布隆伯格（Lawrence N. Bloomberg）在其1938年的论文中称之为消费者商誉(consumer goodwill)。他认为，消费者商誉是通过卓越的产品、便利性、有礼貌的员工、出色的广告，以及有时像可口可乐一样的秘密成分而产生的。华尔街日报和可口可乐公司都是刀枪不入的消费者垄断企业。

People are wedded to both products because of something that John Hopkins University student Lawrence N. Bloomberg called consumer goodwill in his 1938 dissertation. Consumer goodwill, he argued, comes about through a superior product, convenience, courteous employees, great advertising, and, sometimes, like Coca-Cola, a secret ingredient. Both the Wall Street Journal and Coca-Cola are bulletproof consumer monopolies.

垄断消费者型企业可以在不太依赖对土地、制造工厂或设备的持续投资的情况下，还能够制造其产品或服务。这样避免了高额的不动产税和维护成本，反而收获了更大的利润。以可口可乐或万宝路香烟为例。一旦他们建立了自己的工厂，就没有什么需要更新的。

Consumer monopolies are also able to manufacture their products or services without relying too much on continuous investments in land, manufacturing plants, or equipment. They avoid high property taxes and maintenance costs and reap bigger profits instead. Take Coca-Cola or Marlboro cigarettes. Once they’ve built their factories, there’s not much that needs updating.

另一方面，那些需要不断对实物资产进行大量投资的公司--例如，通用汽车--会产生沉重的成本，从而削弱其利润。为了扩张，他们需要不断建造新的制造工厂和设备。这使他们无法完全垄断自己的市场空间。

On the other hand, companies that require continuous big investments in physical assets – like, for instance, General Motors – incur heavy costs that dent their profits. To expand, they need to keep building new manufacturing plants and equipment. This stops them from monopolizing their space completely.

那结论呢？如果你想投资赚大钱的公司，请选择消费者垄断企业。

The bottom line? If you want to invest in big winners, choose consumer monopolies.

4, There are three types of businesses that make the best investments.

[ 有三种类型的企业是最好的投资 ]

因此，正如我们刚刚发现的，最好的投资种类是消费者垄断企业。这些企业就像收费的桥梁，收取如山的利润。但什么样的企业才是好的消费者垄断企业？看看沃伦-巴菲特的投资组合，可以看出有三种不同类型的企业符合这一模式。

So, as we’ve just discovered, the best kinds of investments are consumer monopolies. These businesses are like toll bridges, collecting mountains of profit. But what kinds of businesses make for good consumer monopolies? Looking at Warren Buffett’s investment portfolio, it’s possible to discern three different types of businesses that fit the mold.

第一类是生产快速磨损或快速用完的产品的企业。这些企业往往有强大的品牌知名度，经销商如果想继续经营下去，通常必须备货和出售其产品。当该企业是唯一提供该特定产品的企业时，情况更是如此，所以零售商别无选择，只能按照制造商确定的价格购买。

The first of these are businesses that make products that wear out quickly or are used up fast. These businesses often have powerful brand recognition and merchants usually have to carry or use their product if they want to stay in business. This is especially true when the business is the only one providing that particular product, so retailers have no choice but to buy it at a price determined by the manufacturer.

可口可乐就是这种企业的一个很好的例子。尽管有那么多的模仿者，但只有一种可口可乐，每个好的饮品店都必须提供这种产品。

Coca-Cola is a great example of this kind of business. Despite all of the imitators, there is only one Coca-Cola, and every good drinking establishment has to serve it.

巴菲特偏爱的第二种投资是通信企业，没有这些企业，制造商就无法为其产品做广告。它们提供了一种持续的、重复的服务，制造商必须不断为之付费。这些可能是电视网络、广告公司或出版物。为了让他们的产品进入消费者的视野，制造商必须使用通信企业的“收费桥梁”。

The second kind of investments that Buffett prefers are communications businesses, without which manufacturers couldn’t advertise their products. They provide a continuous and repetitive service that manufacturers have to keep paying for. These might be TV networks, advertising agencies, or publications. To get their products in the minds of consumers, manufacturers have to use the toll bridge of the communications business.

巴菲特感兴趣的第三类企业是那些提供重复性消费服务的企业，这些服务的需求是持续的。这些服务通常由非技术性、非工会化的工人提供，他们是临时雇用的。这使得成本低，利润高。

The third type of businesses that interests Buffett are those that provide repetitive consumer services that are in constant demand. These services are often provided by unskilled, nonunionized workers, who are hired on a temporary basis. This keeps costs low, and profits high.

在美国，这包括提供女佣服务、害虫消杀、专业清洁和草坪护理的ServiceMaster公司，以及帮助人们管理纳税的H&R Block公司。这些类型的企业，就像所有最好的垄断消费者型企业一样，几乎不需要资本支出来保持利润。

In the US, this includes firms like ServiceMaster, which provides maid services, pest control, professional cleaning, and lawn care, and H&R Block, which helps people get their taxes in order. These kinds of businesses, like all the best consumer monopolies, require little in the way of capital expenditure to keep the profits coming in.

5, You should learn to think of company earnings as part of your investment.

[ 你应该学会把公司的收益看作是你投资的一部分 ]

好了，现在我们要来点技术性的了。

Okay, now we’re going to get a little bit more technical.

投资者评估一只股票的一种方法是看每股收益。你通过将公司的收益除以流通股的数量来得到这个数字。因此，如果一家公司的收益为76亿美元，拥有39.8亿股流通股，你将用76亿除以39.8亿，得出每股收益为1.91美元。

One way that investors evaluate a stock is by looking at the earnings per share. You get this number by dividing the company’s earnings by the number of outstanding shares. So, if a company has earnings of $7.6 billion, and has 3.98 billion outstanding shares, you’d divide 7.6 billion by 3.98 billion to arrive at an earnings per share of $1.91.

对于大多数投资者来说，如果这个数字在增长，那么就是一个好兆头，因为这意味着该公司是盈利的。但是，除非这些收益是作为股息支付的，否则大多数投资者不会觉得这些收益是他们的事。

For most investors, if this number is growing, then it’s a good sign, as it means the company is profitable. But unless those earnings are paid as dividends, most investors won’t feel that those earnings are their business.

然而，沃伦-巴菲特和大多数投资者不一样。他以一种非常不同的方式来看待公司的收益。如果他投资于一家公司，他认为该公司的收益是他的，与他拥有的股份数量成正比。因此，举例来说，如果他拥有一家公司的100股，而该公司每股盈利5美元，那么他认为他刚刚赚了500美元。

Warren Buffett, however, is not most investors. He thinks of company earnings in a very unorthodox way. If he invests in a company, he believes that the corporation’s earnings are his, in proportion to how many shares he owns. So, for example, if he owns 100 shares of a company and the company earns $5 per share, then he believes that he has just earned $500.

巴菲特认为，一家公司可以将盈利保留或再投资，或者以红利的形式支付。无论哪种方式，这些收益都应该直接惠及股东。由于这种信念，巴菲特对管理层选择如何处理收益有特殊的兴趣。如果你是一个严肃的投资者，你也应该如此。

Buffett believes that a company can either retain and reinvest earnings profitably, or pay them out as dividends. Either way, those earnings should directly benefit the shareholder. Because of this belief, Buffett has a special interest in what management chooses to do with earnings. And if you’re a serious investor, so should you.

与许多华尔街的投资者不同，巴菲特更喜欢公司保留他们的收益，而不是把它们作为股息支付出去。他的理由是，如果一个公司支付股息，那么投资者将不得不支付资本利得税，并失去一些利润。

Unlike many Wall Street investors, Buffett prefers companies to retain their earnings rather than paying them out as dividends. He reasons that if a company pays out dividends, then the investors will have to pay capital gains tax and lose some of their profit.

另一方面，如果企业能够将盈利再投资，并增加公司的基本价值，那么这应该反映在股票价格上。然后，投资者可以继续此股票，股价也会逐年增加。

On the other hand, if the business can profitably reinvest earnings, and increase the underlying value of the company, then this should be reflected in the stock price. Investors can then continue to hold a stock that increases in value over many years.

以巴菲特自己的企业--跨国控股公司伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司为例。在80年代初，该公司的交易价格为每股500美元。今天，它的价值超过了每股400,000美元！这是因为巴菲特能够以每股500美元的价格收购该公司。这是因为巴菲特能够对留存收益进行再投资，增加公司的价值。伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司从未支付过一次股息。

Take Buffett’s own business, the multinational holding company, Berkshire Hathaway. In the early eighties, the company traded at $500 a share. Today, it’s worth over $400,000 per share! This is because Buffett was able to reinvest retained earnings and increase the value of the company. Berkshire Hathaway has never paid a single dividend.

由于收益是你投资的一个重要部分，所以拥有值得信赖和有能力的管理层很重要。如果该公司确实保留了其收益，你应该看看它是有利可图地运用这些收益，还是把它们挥霍在昂贵的愚蠢行为上。如果是后者，那么你就应该离这个企业和股票远一点。

As earnings are such a vital part of your investment, it’s important to have trustworthy and competent management. If the company does retain its earnings, you should look to see if it employs them profitably, or squanders them on expensive folly. If it’s the latter, then you should run a mile from the business, and the stock.

6, Stock price and the rate of return are important criteria when choosing investments.

[ 股票价格和回报率是选择投资时的重要标准 ]

在沃伦-巴菲特的思想中，你为一只股票支付的价格是至关重要的。

In Warren Buffett’s thinking, the price you pay for a stock is critical.

这听起来可能很明显，但许多投资者忘记了这一点，只是简单地以任何价格购买股票，希望它们会升值。这就是投机，而不是投资。要像沃伦-巴菲特那样投资，你必须以正确的价格购买正确的股票。

That might sound obvious, but many investors forget this, and simply purchase shares at any price, hoping they will go up in value. That’s speculating, rather than investing. To invest like Warren Buffett, you have to buy the right stock at the right price.

这是因为你支付的价格决定了回报率。例如，如果你为一只股票支付100美元，每股收益为20美元，那么你的回报率为20%。然而，如果你为同一只股票支付200美元，那么你的回报率就会缩减到10%，以此类推。很简单，股票价格越高，回报率就越低，而股票价格越低，回报率就越高。

This is because the price you pay determines the rate of return. For example, if you pay $100 for a stock and the per-share earnings are $20, then your rate of return is 20 percent. However, if you pay $200 for the same stock, then your rate of return shrinks to 10 percent, and so on. Quite simply, the higher the stock price, the lower the rate of return, and the lower the stock price, the higher the rate of return.

因此，最重要的事情是，当股票价格是你寻找的这种回报率时，再购买股票。但为了确定回报率，你需要能够合理地预测该公司的未来收益。

It’s vital, then, that you purchase a stock when the price is right for the kind of return you’re looking for. But in order to determine the rate of return, you’ll need to be able to reasonably predict the company’s future earnings.

让我们举一个巴菲特自己投资生涯中的例子。1979年，他开始购买一家名为通用食品的公司的股票。他总共买了400万股，平均价格为每股37美元。

Let’s take an example from Buffett’s own investment career. In 1979, he began buying shares in a company called General Foods. In total, he bought 4 million shares at an average price of $37 per share.

通过回顾其最近的历史，巴菲特能够看到，通用食品公司的每股收益，即EPS，一直以年均8.7%的速度稳步增长。在他购买该公司股票时，每股收益为4.65美元。因此，在下一年，如果没有大的灾难，他可以合理地预测，公司的收益将增长到每股5.05美元。这意味着，由于他支付了每股37美元，他将获得13.6%的初始回报率。

By looking back over its recent history, Buffett was able to see that General Foods’ earnings per share, or EPS, had been growing steadily at an average annual rate of 8.7 percent. At the time he purchased the company stock, the EPS was $4.65. So, in the next year, if there was no great disaster, he could reasonably predict that company earnings would grow to $5.05 a share. This means that, as he paid $37 per share, he would get an initial rate of return of 13.6 percent.

在现实中，巴菲特对他的预测一直很保守。通用食品公司后来的EPS为5.12美元。但他这种计算方法是一个好主意，对他期望的这种回报来说。

In reality, Buffett had been conservative with his predictions: General Foods went on to have an EPS of $5.12. But his calculations gave a very good idea of the kind of return he might expect.

如果你真的想选择能带来高额、稳定回报的好投资，你肯定需要在考虑每股收益的同时考虑股票价格。这是一个关键的公式。

If you’re serious about choosing good investments that give high, steady returns, you’ll definitely need to consider the stock price alongside the EPS. It’s a crucial formula.

7, You should only invest in what you really understand. 

[ 你应该只投资于你真正了解的东西 ]

当沃伦-巴菲特被问及比尔-盖茨时，他会对微软的联合创始人大加赞赏。他认为他是商业世界中最聪明、最有创造力的人之一。他会说，微软是一家杰出的公司。但由于计算机软件不是他的专长，他不能投资于该公司。这不在他所谓的能力圈之内。

When Warren Buffett is asked about Bill Gates, he’ll gush over Microsoft’s cofounder. He thinks he’s one of the smartest and most creative minds in the business world. He’ll say that Microsoft is a brilliant company. But because computer software isn’t his forte, he can’t invest in the company. It’s not within what he calls his circle of competence.

这是一个重要的洞察力。当你投资的时候，你应该了解你自己在做什么。也许，与巴菲特不同，技术是在你的能力范围内。在这种情况下，你可以放心地投资于微软或苹果，例如。如果不是，你应该从你熟悉的产品或服务开始。

This is an important insight. When you invest, you should understand what you’re getting yourself into. Perhaps, unlike Buffett, technology is in your circle of competence. In that case, you might comfortably invest in Microsoft or Apple, for example. If not, you should start with products or services that you’re familiar with.

例如，你可以注意你在超市买的东西，或者检查你的浴室柜或冰箱。你在那里发现了什么？你经常在哪些餐馆吃饭？沃伦-巴菲特的许多最佳投资都是在那些生产简单、流行产品的公司--那些像吉列、卡夫食品和麦当劳的公司。

For instance, you could note what you buy at the supermarket, or check your bathroom cabinet or refrigerator. What do you find there? Which restaurants do you eat at regularly? Many of Warren Buffett’s best investments have been in companies that make simple, popular products – those like Gillette, Kraft Foods, and McDonald’s.

然后，当你找到几家你真正 "了解 "的公司时，是时候做一些更详细的研究了。有很多免费资源可以让你阅读公司的财务、管理和任何相关的新闻报道。

Then, when you’ve found a few companies you really “get,” it’s time to do some more detailed research. There are lots of free resources that allow you to read up on company finances, management, and any relevant news stories.

你通常可以在一个公司的网站上阅读其年度报告，或者你可以打电话索取一份报告。你可以在《Value Line》和《Moody's》等资源中找到关键的财务信息，这些资源可以在网上和印刷品中获取。从这样的出版物中，你可以确定我们在这里讨论的一些关键指标，如年收益和每股收益，这对沃伦-巴菲特的投资方法非常关键。

You can often read a company’s annual report on its website, or you can call and request a copy. You can find key financial information in resources like Value Line and Moody’s, which can be accessed online and in print. From publications like this, you can determine some of the key metrics we’ve discussed here, like annual earnings and EPS, that are so crucial to Warren Buffett’s investment approach.

除了财务信息外，研究公司管理层也很重要。通过挖掘旧的新闻报道和做一些私人侦探工作，你应该很快就能对他们建立一个可观印象。如果他们看起来值得信赖，有能力，并且有一个长期的、面向股东的方法，那么你碰到一个好事情。例如，在困难时期，他们是否做出了务实的商业决定？或者他们是否将公司的利润浪费在失败的企业上？

As well as financial information, it’s important to research the company management. By digging into old news stories and doing a little private detective work, you should soon build a good picture of them. If they appear trustworthy, competent, and have a long-term, shareholder-oriented approach, then you could be onto a good thing. For instance, did they take pragmatic business decisions when times were hard? Or did they fritter away company profits on failed ventures?

如果你能找到一家你真正了解其产品的垄断性消费企业，其每股收益不断增长，而且其管理层看起来很稳健，那么你可能已经找到了沃伦-巴菲特本人可能投资的东西。你准备好采取下一步行动了吗？

If you can find a consumer monopoly whose product you really understand, which has growing EPS, and which has management that appears solid, then you might have found something that Warren Buffet himself might invest in. Are you ready to take the next step?

8, Final summary [ 最后的总结 ]

本书关键信息是：

最好的投资种类是消费者垄断企业。这些企业在其行业中占主导地位，并提供受欢迎和必要的服务和产品。这些公司并不像你想象的那样难以发现--其中一些公司，如可口可乐和宝洁公司，你可能会从你的冰箱或浴室柜的产品中发现。事实上，你最好的投资是你最了解的投资。不过，在你真的投资一家公司之前，你应该检查该股票的价格是否符合你所寻找的那种回报。你还应该特别注意每股收益，以确保该企业能持续盈利。最后，始终要像商人一样思考，而不是像华尔街的投机者。

The key message in these blinks is that:

The best kinds of investments are consumer monopolies. These are businesses that dominate their sector and provide popular and necessary services and products. These companies aren’t as difficult to discover as you might think – some of them, like Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble, you might find from products in your refrigerator or bathroom cabinet. In fact, your best investment is one you understand best. Before you do invest in a company, though, you should check that the stock is at the right price for the kind of returns you’re looking for. You should also pay special attention to earnings per share, to make sure that the business is consistently profitable. Finally, always think like a businessperson, not a Wall Street speculator.

这里有一些更可操作的建议：

走进你当地的商店，询问销售情况。

And here’s some more actionable advice:

Drop into your local store and ask how sales are going.

如果你正在考虑投资一个产品在当地商店可以找到的企业，不要害怕走进去问销售员这个品牌的销售情况。也许你在投资百事公司--生产百事可乐、山露和佳得乐的公司--和可口可乐公司之间徘徊。你可以问售货员，"你们这里哪种软饮料卖得最多？"

If you’re thinking of investing in a business whose products can be found in the local store, don’t be afraid to drop in and ask the sales clerk how the brand is selling. Perhaps you’re caught between investing in PepsiCo – the company that manufactures Pepsi, Mountain Dew, and Gatorade – and The Coca-Cola Company. You could ask the sales clerk, “Which soft drink do you sell most around here?”