What to make of America’s topsy-turvy economy

Don’t panic just yet

topsy-turvy：颠倒的；混乱的；乱七八糟的；

make of：理解；认为；看待

Make of: 这里的 “make of” 意思是如何理解或解释某事物。结合上下文，这句话的意思是，如何理解或解释美国颠倒混乱的经济状况。
例句：I don’t know what to make of his sudden decision to quit his job.（我不知道该如何理解他突然辞职的决定。）

原文：

Don’t blame American investors for feeling seasick. The past few weeks

have brought a swirl of contradictory economic news: stock prices sank and

then rebounded; jobs figures were weaker than predicted but retail sales

were much stronger. Chatter about an immediate emergency interest-rate cut

by the Federal Reserve built up and then died down. After the exuberance of

the first half of 2024, economy-watchers are anxiously poring over each new

data release. The utterances of Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, at the

Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers on August 23rd, after we

published this, will be examined even more closely than usual.

别怪美国投资者晕船。过去几周出现了一连串相互矛盾的经济消息:股票价格下跌，然后反弹；就业数据弱于预期，但零售额却强劲得多。关于美联储立即紧急降息的传言越来越多，然后逐渐平息。在2024年上半年的繁荣之后，经济观察家们正在焦虑地研究每一项新的数据发布。在我们发表这篇文章后，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在8月23日杰克逊霍尔央行行长会议上的发言将会受到比以往更仔细的审查。

学习：

feel seasick：晕船

swirl：美 [swɜːrl] 漩涡；涡流；

chatter：喋喋不休；唠叨；闲聊；

exuberance：美 [ɪg’zjʊbərəns] 繁荣

poring：认真钻研；凝视；（pore的现在分词）

utterance：言论；表达

原文：

What is going on? Economic data can often be volatile around turning

points, and several oddities are obscuring the picture. Take a step back,

though, and America’s economy seems poised for a gradual slowdown, not a

crash.

这是怎么回事？经济数据经常在转折点前后波动，几个奇怪的现象模糊了画面。然而，退一步来看，美国经济似乎准备逐渐放缓，而不是崩溃。

学习：

oddities：英 ['ɒdɪtɪs] 古怪；怪人；怪事；奇异；（oddity的复数）

原文：

The most marked area of weakness so far has been the labour market.

Unemployment jumped to 4.3% in July, a big enough leap to invoke the

Sahm Rule, an indicator based on the rise in joblessness that has identified

every American recession since 1960 (but which has a patchier record in

other countries). Another rule, which uses both unemployment and job-

vacancy figures, implies that a recession might have begun as early as

March. Markets nervously await the next jobs release on September 6th.

迄今为止，最明显的疲软领域是劳动力市场。7月份，失业率跃升至4.3%，这一飞跃足以援引Sahm规则，该指标基于失业率的上升，自1960年以来，美国经历了每一次衰退(但在其他国家的记录不尽相同)。另一个使用失业和职位空缺数据的规则表明衰退可能早在三月份就已经开始了。市场紧张地等待着9月6日的下一次就业报告。

学习：

patchy：不均匀的；不完全的；不完整的；参差不齐的

原文：

Dig into the data, though, and it looks as if this weakness may be overstated.

Much of the rise in unemployment in the latest figures came from temporary

lay-offs, which tend to be volatile. America’s recent surge in immigration

might also be influencing the data; new migrants are often not in work until

a little after their initial arrival. Some of the rise in unemployment, therefore,

may be short-term.

然而，深究数据，似乎这一弱点被夸大了。最新数据显示，失业率的上升很大程度上是由于临时解雇造成的，而临时解雇往往是不稳定的。美国最近移民的激增也可能影响了数据；新移民通常在初次到达后不久才开始工作。因此，一些失业率的上升可能是短期的。

学习：

overstated：夸张；夸大；（overstate的过去分词）

原文：

History may also be muddling things. Investors may be so jittery because

they have over-learned the lessons of the previous two big recessions: during

the global financial crisis of 2007-09 and the covid crash. Both of those were

faster and deeper than a typical downswing, amplified as they were by a

fragile banking system and a pandemic, respectively. They may not be the

best guide to what to expect today.

历史也可能把事情搞得一团糟。投资者如此紧张可能是因为他们过度吸取了前两次大衰退的教训:2007-09年全球金融危机和covid crash。这两次衰退都比典型的衰退更快更深，分别被脆弱的银行体系和pandemic放大。它们可能不是今天预期的最佳指南。

学习：

muddling：使糊涂；（muddle的现在分词）

jittery：紧张不安的；战战兢兢的；神经过敏的

downswing：下降趋势；下滑；衰退；

原文：

Conventional slowdowns are often stop-start and gradual. A better guide

than 2008 or 2020 may be the more subdued environment of the 1990s and

early 2000s. Another more recent precedent might be mid-2019, when the

Fed smoothed over a growth hiccup by unwinding some previous interest

rate rises.

传统的经济衰退通常是走走停停和渐进的。与2008年或2020年相比，更好的指引可能是20世纪90年代和21世纪初更加低迷的环境。另一个更近的先例可能是在2019年年中，当时美联储通过解除之前的一些加息来消除增长障碍。

学习：

stop-start：断断续续的；时停时走的；间歇性的；

subdued：柔和的；减弱的；压低的；抑郁的；闷闷不乐的；

hiccup：轻微故障；短期困难；暂时挫折；短暂中断；暂时耽搁；

原文：

How, then, to describe the current state of the economy? It is certainly

slowing, and likely to slow further. A peculiar feature of this cycle has been

that tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy have pulled in opposite

directions. Thus far, the tug-of-war has left the economy expanding at a

rapid clip; GDP growth was 3.1% over the past year. But a pace that speedy

cannot be sustained for ever: most estimates put America’s long-run

potential growth rate at closer to 1.5-2% a year.

那么，如何描述当前的经济状况呢？毫无疑问，美国经济正在放缓，而且可能会进一步放缓。本轮周期的一个独特特征是，紧缩的货币政策和宽松的财政政策背道而驰。迄今为止，这场拉锯战让美国经济快速扩张；过去一年，国内生产总值增长了3.1%。但是这种速度不可能永远持续下去:大多数估计认为美国的长期潜在增长率接近每年1.5-2%。

学习：

tug-of-war：拔河；拔河比赛；拉锯战

clip：速度

这里的 “clip” 指的是速度或步伐。结合上下文，这句话的意思是，尽管财政政策宽松、货币政策紧缩，两者互相拉扯，但经济依然以快速的速度在增长。GDP 增长率在过去一年达到了 3.1%。

例句：The athlete was running at a fast clip, easily outpacing his competitors.（这名运动员以快速的速度奔跑，轻松超过了他的竞争对手。）

原文：

A good measure of the overall thrust of the latest economic data is the

Atlanta Fed’s “nowcast” of GDP growth, which draws on a wide swathe of

data. That has fallen over the past two weeks—but to a still healthy 2%.

Conditions could yet deteriorate further if the lagged effect of high interest

rates starts to bite. Some households are already feeling a squeeze: the share

of credit-card bills left unpaid has risen to a 13-year high.

衡量最新经济数据总体趋势的一个很好的指标是亚特兰大联邦储备银行对GDP增长的“即时预测”，该预测利用了广泛的数据。过去两周，这一比例有所下降——但仍降至健康的2%。如果高利率的滞后效应开始产生影响，情况可能会进一步恶化。一些家庭已经感受到压力:未支付的信用卡账单份额已经上升到13年来的最高水平。

学习：
thrust：（论据、政策等的）要点；要旨；重点

swathe：绷带；带子；一长条；一大片

a wide swathe of data：大量数据，广泛的数据

原文：

It should help, though, that the economy is far better situated today than in

2019 in one crucial respect: there is plenty of room for the Fed to ease.

Investors expect interest rates to fall from their current range of 5.25-5.50%

by more than two percentage points in the next year. Those cuts are already

reflected in lower long-term bond yields. But interest rates could

comfortably fall further and faster if worse news on the economy demanded

it. By contrast, a fall of two percentage points in 2019 would have returned

rates all the way to zero.

然而，在一个关键方面，今天的经济状况远好于2019年，这应该有所帮助:美联储有很大的放松空间。投资者预计，明年利率将从目前的5.25%至5.50%的区间下降两个百分点以上。这些削减已经反映在较低的长期债券收益率上。但是如果经济方面的坏消息需要的话，利率可以更快更进一步的下降。相比之下，2019年下降两个百分点将使利率完全回到零。

原文：

How much of the fuel left in the Fed’s tank will be needed? At Jackson Hole

last year, Mr Powell signalled his determination to raise rates until inflation

was back at its 2% target. Today inflation is nearly back to where it needs to

be and the growth outlook is shakier. An interest-rate cut of a quarter of a

percentage point in September seems almost certain.

美联储的油箱里还需要多少燃料？去年在杰克逊霍尔，鲍威尔先生表明了他提高利率的决心，直到通货膨胀回到2%的目标。如今，通胀率几乎回到了应有的水平，增长前景也更加不确定。9月份降息0.25个百分点似乎已成定局。

Powell, so confusing

原文：

But central bankers should beware of overreacting. Financial markets are

still pricing in a one-in-three chance of a jumbo rate cut of half a percentage

point. Unless further bad news arrives, such a sharp move could go too far.

The Fed faces danger from two sides: if it cuts too much, it could risk

another surge in inflation; if it cuts too little, growth could falter more. Mr

Powell has made admirable progress fighting inflation so far. His reward is

that he now faces a new enemy, even as the old one is not yet fully defeated.■

但央行行长们应该小心反应过度。金融市场仍认为有三分之一的可能性会大幅降息0.5个百分点。除非有进一步的坏消息传来，否则这种大幅变动可能会太过了。美联储面临着来自两方面的危险:如果削减太多，它可能面临通胀再次飙升的风险；如果削减得太少，增长可能会更加不稳定。到目前为止，鲍威尔先生在对抗通货膨胀方面取得了令人钦佩的进展。他的回报是他现在面对一个新的敌人，尽管旧的敌人还没有被完全击败。■

学习：
overreacting：反应过度；（overreact的现在分词形式）

jumbo：英 [ˈdʒʌmbəʊ] 庞大的；巨型的；

falter:变弱

Falter: 这里的 “falter” 指的是衰退或变弱。结合上下文，这句话的意思是，如果美联储降息幅度太小，经济增长可能会进一步衰退或变得不稳定。

例句：The company’s growth began to falter after the loss of its biggest client.（失去最大客户后，公司增长开始衰退。）

后记

2024年8月24日18点43分于上海。